Monday 25 August 2025
Start the Week 25 August 2025
The spotlight this week falls squarely on Nvidia (NVDA), with second-quarter earnings due Wednesday. As the world’s most valuable company and the clear leader in AI chip technology, Nvidia’s results will be closely watched for both revenue growth and forward guidance.
Analyst expectations: Another record sales quarter, despite ongoing China export restrictions.
China impact: Nvidia has already flagged an $8 billion revenue headwind tied to U.S. trade curbs but recently struck a revenue-sharing deal with the Trump administration on its AI chip sales there. Updates on new products tailored for China could be a key driver.
Investor focus: Demand momentum for AI chips, the pace of global data center build-out, and clarity on regulatory risks.
Other key earnings: Marvell Technology, Dell, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Autodesk, Veeva, HP, and the major Canadian banks.
On Friday, the market gets the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Last week’s dovish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell already lifted expectations for a September rate cut.
Context: June PCE showed a slight uptick in prices. However, other July inflation reports suggested some easing.
Market implications: A softer PCE print could cement expectations for the Fed’s first cut of the year. A hotter reading would complicate the narrative.
Additional data this week:
Monday: New home sales (July)
Tuesday: Consumer confidence (August), durable-goods orders, Case-Shiller home prices
Thursday: Q2 GDP revision, weekly jobless claims, pending home sales
Friday: Final August consumer sentiment, U.S. trade balance, retail & wholesale inventories
Equity momentum remains tied to AI leadership stocks and Fed policy expectations.
The bond market will react to both Powell’s tone and Friday’s inflation print.
Housing and consumer confidence data could help gauge how restrictive policy has been on the real economy.
CME Group and FanDuel are launching “event contracts” tied to key financial outcomes—including inflation releases, cryptocurrency moves, and S&P 500 levels—effectively blurring the line between derivatives markets and retail betting.